I remember my father predicting the weather better than the meteorologist on TV. Every time he predicted adverse weather I would question him… he was right 95% of the time.
After so many years as a pilot, I can now say that I read the sky just like my father did.
Weather forecasting is not an exact science, but it is an extraordinarily complex and extremely difficult discipline in which to be accurate. Aviators constantly rely on the current weather they can see, the forecast at the destination, and the departure airport’s report.
When the weather is well below the landing system, which will ensure a safe landing, we need to have an alternative airfield to land just in case we can’t at the destination. Pilots are meteorologists as well; we get a weather package before each flight, and it covers all aspects of our planned route plus alternative routes.